Screaming Penguin - Source Does Matter

What are you worried about? That they are going to throw green cheese at you? The U.S. has already been to the Moon, if there was anything worthwhile they'd have stuck around. In May of 1959 the Horizon project was scrapped. If the Chinese want to go to that dustball more power to them! The U.S. Apollo project was a waste for the U.S., and anyone else wanting to go to the Moon will be wasting their time and resources too.

All manned spaceflight is a waste.

Now if you'd said that the Japanese were planning on launching self-reproducing von Neumann machines into space I'd be concerned!

There, now your story has a comment. :)

I read it, twice now. You had me going there for a bit! I guess I'll have to spell out what my post means.

The "green cheese" thing was a take on "the military ramifications". Green cheese being about all the Moon could add to China's arsenal. It sucks as an ICBM platform. It's too far away.

I would also like to add at this time that the only nation that has ever used nuclear weapons agressively is the U.S.

The "Horizon project" was a scrapped plan of the U.S. army to put a military base on the Moon. They saw it's lack of worth years ago.

I'll also add that as far as "a long history of human rights abuses and totalitarian government" goes the "free" world is quickly catching up to anything going on in the far east. It's just that the propaganda you're being fed is a one way parabolic mirror, magnifying what goes on there, and hiding what's going on around you.

There's slave labor camps in the U.S. you know. Do a websearch of the word "Wackenhut".

Who ever told you that the Chinese weren't the good guys?

Have a nice day :)

Granted certainly the Chinese have had a lot more time to rack up a bad rep than westerners have. Or at least they kept better records of it all.

But I would like to point out westerner's stellar performance even with such a late entry on the stage. Namely 2 world wars, 7 crusades, and lets not forget what American settlers did to native Americans, "The only good indian is a dead one!" policy. Ancestors of Chinese. I suppose we have all committed our various transgressions from time to time.

If the Chinese want to spy from the Moon I'd consider that a lot more polite than flying planes off the coast to do so, like some do to them. Spying isn't really a bad thing, knowing what's going on can help keep the peace. Also, if the Chinese really want to spy newsstands will sell them copies of Time Magazine too. The biggest spies in the world are in the middle east, (the Israelies) and I don't hear about them going to the Moon, or even into space. I guess the lesson to be learned there is the closer you can get to your data, the more detailed, and reliable it can be.

Hey, maybe they're going to the Moon for the same morale building reasons that the U.S. did in the late 60's and early 70's? And, they can talk about doing something for themselves and saying for the good of Mankind. They're what, about a quarter of the world's population? A bit of a stretch but one in four is close.

I just can't read a whole lot of sinister intent into going to the Moon is all. The logistics of going to the Moon have not improved in 30 years, it's still a quarter million miles away from Earth. Putting up an artificial moon, a satellite is so much easier and more effective. I believe the U.S. has proven this point more times than it'll admit to anyone.

But, what if going to the Moon is just practice for going to Mars? The Chinese might feel the draw of the "Red" planet irresistible. Any "Red" planet has just got to be chock filled with commies ya know? I've seen that H.G. Wells movie. If they team up with them flying commies we're all in big trouble!

Then again the Chinese don't have a great record of making allies of other communists.

I'm worried about a whole lot that's going on but a Chinese Moon mission isn't even on my radar screen. I could go on about this topic but I wax silly at times over it, and would prefer much more serious subject matter. Fears about Chinese conquest of the Moon isn't. Who are they going to oppress there, little green men?

News Flash! Chinese take control of the Lunar Rover and mow down protestors in Tiananmen Crater. Film at 11. Nah, I just don't see it happening anytime too soon. It's not like when the U.S. got to the Moon it shot up a bunch of college kids there (Ohio State massacre reference).

Topics I could take seriously include, is GWB leading the world into another World War, or is Human expansion spelling mass extinction, or maybe will our technology replace us? We all have those illogical fears that we dwell on. Being able to get a good eggroll on the Moon doesn't happen to be one of mine though! :)

Throw out the spy mission stuff. At a quarter million miles optics would be useless (Ever seen a picture of a lunar module base from Earth?) The most sensitive electromagnetic ears would only pick up national broadcast stations. They probably have those covered already.

The moon missions had a bigger meaning than is being stated here, and it is a very direct military problem. The moon's lighter gravity and lack of air resistance means lift cost is far less (how big was the Saturn V versus the lunar ascent portion of the LM?) Despite the increased distance, ballistic missiles can hit ANYWHERE on the planet from dear ol' Luna even strapped to a rocket as weak as a V2 (WWII German rocket). Literally. As for accuracy, all real targeting by a missile's payload is done on final de-orbit and reentry. Boost phase just gets the shot going in the right general direction. It's not that different than shooting ICBMs from Earth. It just takes longer. The Apollo capsules managed to land quite predictably in a relatively small area using less computing power than a calculator watch and navigation instruments far less sensitive than most commercially available inertial navigation systems.

The US moon missions' real purpose (militarily, at any rate) was to prove that the cost is prohibitive, and if the Soviets try to set up something, we have the edge. Our economy could take it. Our engineers could already do it. Theirs could not. Taking both into account, the Soviets were better off not investing in the attempt and forcing our hand.

Didn't ANYONE wonder why they COMPLETELY stopped trying after our landing? Their Soyuz design was inadequate, and the vehicle we proved it required just cost too much and we already had it. It was not just PR each side was after. The PR on every other battlefield of the cold war always resulted in a "me too" mentality. Look at all the "one ups" in weapons, science, propaganda, sports, foreign aid, espionage, etc, etc.

Since nowadays lift capablilty, computing power, etc. is significantly cheaper, their costs in relative money would almost certainly be far less than Apollo, pound for pound. It's not inconceivable for the Chinese to kick around the notion.

The REAL problem is as a Heinlein title read: "The Moon is a Harsh Mistress". What effect does cosmic radiation have on a nuclear warhead over time? We have a hard enough time predicting warhead system degradation on Earth. Ionizing and transmutational radiation in a warhead are very harsh on the surrounding machinery, hence the major reason why nuclear powers like constant nuclear testing. It ain't just to build better bombs, kids.

Though many scientists talk about using lunar materials for a base, it isn't like there are copper and aluminum mines all over the place. So much material must be lifted from Earth, including the weapons themselves, that the only real advantage is the "boost phase" of the eventual weapon was accomplished beforehand, in peacetime, at approximately twice the total expenditure in power of a typical ICBM just for the warhead itself.

Since most depressurization of any subsystem is likely catastrophic, possibly explosively so, how do you build a system that must contain volatiles in zero pressure for a very long time with no maintenance or inspection? Certainly our own space probes have been hit and miss on that subject.

How do you overcome an environment filled with razor-sharp silica dust, no water, no air, and severe thermal changes? It makes the Saudi deep desert look like Hawaii. Saudi is a hard environment on a vehicle (though you'll notice the US learned real well how to protect our delicate little machines).

Who is to say the Chinese aren't willing to give it a go for the perceived advantage? The mean ol' U.S. is always shooting down their fighters using the nose of reconnaissance aircraft. We keep spying on them and giving them a hard time about "perfectly understandable" crowd control methods. We're so savagely unsupportive of their idea to use a thermonuclear bomb to divert one of their rivers. We keep threatening to slaughter everyone on Taiwan, stealing their nuclear technology, and bribing their politicians (oh, wait, WE'RE upset because THEY do those last three. My bad.)

The moonbase scenario might sound inconceivable, but so many things in science and miltary circles seem that way at first. The British square inconceivably was beaten by organized tribesmen with spears. Sinking a compartmentalized metal ship was inconceivable. One bomb taking out an entire city was inconceivable. In 1959, it was inconceivable that Soviet rocketry could reach everywhere in the world until Sputnik started beeping at us. And let's not forget the organization which thought of an inconceivable, off-the-shelf twist on cruise missile technology last year.

I'd certainly say we have time. I doubt a credible threat would spring up overnight. But complacency on the subject would be a bad thing. If it's impossible because it costs too much, it's not really impossible.