A "timeline" for Iraq?

There is much talk lately about low numbers for Bush and growing disapproval in the states with the Iraq debacle (and the President will address the nation on television about the matter tonight). There have even been several moves in the legislature to introduce a "timetable" to US military involvement in Iraq.

Adding to the confusion has been the VP saying the insurgency is "in its last throes" while the Secretary of Defense says the US will be in Iraq at least a decade and a half.

The President has said a timetable wont do. The President has said we must now stay the course. In this case, the President is correct. (And credit to the Secretary of Defense for what may be an honest estimate, more than a decade, even if its a change from the original "weeks not months".)

The US has a long history of getting involved in all sorts of nonsense (nonsense meaning jumping in with overt or covert actions where threats are perceived but do not really exist - "Soldier of Fortune" style foreign policy) in the middle east. The US also has a long history of bailing out when things dont readily go they way the US envisions or hopes (with or without planning). The bailouts of the past (Afghanistan before during and after the soviet invasion) have proven very costly.

Now is not the time to leave Iraq, despite the difficulties and the cost. It is certainly true that there were many valid issues and concerns about getting into the Iraq situation in the first place, and many things were done profoundly wrong during the invasion and during the *years* since the President declared "mission accomplished" and "bring em on". Yet all of that is in the past now, that is done, and the original action was supported by a large majority of the legislature in HJ114 (Senate vote, House vote) and by a majority of the American people. Despite the misgivings the states must "finish" what was started in Iraq, see Iraq through to self sustainable government, or risk even greater problems.

It would lead to simply greater chaos and confusion and further destabilization of the region if the US were to leave Iraq at present. Those that once supported the Iraq war should not now reconsider, its too late now. The poll numbers, the actions in congress, so on, all reflect an about face of sorts that is inexcusable.

(And the common argument that legislators seem to use when backtracking is "we were lied to". I will grant that when it comes to WMD and terrorism links in Iraq there was some lying, OK a lot of lying, but it came from the President AND the legislature - its a large part of HJ114 itself "Whereas . . . WMD", "Whereas . . . terrorism" - its not a valid excuse to say "we were lied to" when you either KNOW its a lie or are complicit in the lie.)

Comments

RE: A "timeline" for Iraq?

I don't intend to be negative here but what exactly does "finish what was started" mean? Does anyone realistically think we can occupy Iraq for 10 years and things will get better? As I said before this whole thing started we were naive to think we could take over a country and install a new government, especially in a region where everything we do is viewed with mistrust anyway.
We need to plan for an exit strategy because at some point we are going to realize we will never accomplish what we set out to do.

RE: A "timeline" for Iraq?

When I say finish what we started I mean "see Iraq through to self sustainable government" as I said right after "finish what we started" in an attempt to clarify that.

I think it will take decades, I think we need to accept that and start to deal. Yes I think its horrible that Bush has put us in this position and we never should have gotten to this point, but I think we are worse off if we leave before Iraq really is a viable country with a government.

I also think the legacy of Bush should be one of a complete failure in terms of foreign policy. An abject and utter disgrace to the states and the reason we will be mired in a decades long mess OR leave and leave behind a much bigger mess than when we invaded. Neither choice is pretty because of the actions of the Bush administration (and for that matter because of the people that voted for him and put the "Soldier of Fortune" crew in the oval office) but I think staying on, for even the decades it will take, is the better choice.

RE: A "timeline" for Iraq?

I guess at this point I don't think the US will be able to "see Iraq through to self sustainable government". I think it's a nice concept but I have serious doubts that it is attainable.

RE: A "timeline" for Iraq?

I am not sure a Balkan's style civil war is avoidable in Iraq at this point. At the same time, that whole "Pottery Barn Rule" is in full effect here. We broke it, we have a responsibility to pay for it.

I think a "self sustainable government" in Iraq won't be what Richard Perl fantasizes about in some orgasmic contagious democracy way, but it is possible, even if it means accepting a rather authoritarian Shia rule.

Thw whole "weeks not months" thing and the "rebuilding will pay for itself" shit the administration sold were either lies of the grandest magnitude or incompetence of such a level I shudder to think seriously of it. Either way, the half assed way we have run this whole war is a shame.

Any occupation -- ask the Brits -- is about getting local forces trained to an appropriate level, and it can't be rushed like we are trying now. We should have ponied up and accepted at 10 year occupation and spent several years building a professional officer corp in Iraq's civil and national defense infrastructure. Remember, one of the reasons the armies of autocrats tend to suck next to their size, is the autocrat eliminates any real leaders in their ranks because they might be a threat to him.

At any rate, the whole "negotiation with the Sunni insurgents" thing is seriously costing what little moral authority we had here.

David Brooks in the Times the other day talked about what a cost to US power and prestige an abject failure in Iraq would be. Well, you know what, that might not be such a bad thing. Everyone with half a brain now knows that the American Century is over and it isn't about to become the American Millennium. This century will belong to central and south Asia. Certainly in terms of our military prowess and economic might Bush has ushered that in faster than it would have come on it's own, but whatever.

at any rate, what do we have left to lose in Iraq? It is already a training ground and exporting highly trained terrorists to North Africa. Without removing all our troops from ROK and Germany, something that might not be a bad idea, but would never fly, we simply don't have the boots to put on the ground to control it the way we need to-- historically about a 1:50 relationship-- and our civil defense infrastructure is starting to crumble. God forbid we have a bad hurricane season and need the National Guard.

RE: A "timeline" for Iraq?

Good point Coop. I'm not sure the average joe understands the strain we've put on ourselves with that sustained troop deployment. Montana had a wet spring, otherwise their govenor would be screaming to get his National Guard troops back because they are critical in the fight against forest fires.
I always viewed the National Guard as something of an insurance policy - we paid all those people to do next to nothing in the event we needed them for some great national emergency. This war is going to burn up that resource and who in their right mind can say at the end of the day that this was the national emergency we wanted to use them for. Cuz how many of them will stay in the service now? These are guys who had careers and were part time soldiers and now those careers are wrecked. A 2+ year (not to mention that 10 number we hear bantied about) deployment has been an enormous burden on them and sure 'they new what they were signing up for' but I think over the next 3 years we will see a huge dropoff in those willing to reinlist.

RE: A "timeline" for Iraq?

I know this is off topic but why isn't there a big push to impeach Bush? Every one knows he and his staff knew they were inflating their evidence about the WMD's. The outing of the guys CIA wife - if that wasn't a 'everyone opposed keep your mouth shut' statement I don't know what was. They had to have been receiving competent military advice that this would not be a quick campaign. Didn't they fire the General in charge after he told congress the troop estimates were way low? Why is the country just taking this? They are lying at about this at every turn. I still can't see a photo of the VP without thinking of that 'they will be throwing flowers at our feet' crap.
We employed Kenneth Starr for almost the entire Clinton presidency over incidental things and heresay - and yes getting a blowjob in the Whitehouse was a bad thing, but people are getting killed out there - isn't that more serious?
I really just don't get it.

RE: A "timeline" for Iraq?

I know this is off topic but why isn't there a big push to impeach Bush?

I think the real reason is "impeachement" just lost a lot of meaning with the whole Clinton thing.

Frankly, I think a very real combination of the WMD and the Plame affair are much more impeachable than what, in the end, brought Nixon down. It is just at this point, with "impeachment" being about a BJ and the fact that a majority of people actually voted for these jackasses in the last election...

RE: A "timeline" for Iraq?

Did I mention it took Bush 0:0:45 to mention Sept 11 and 0:0:47 to say "they hate freedom"?

RE: A "timeline" for Iraq?

@Did I mention it took Bush 0:0:45 to mention Sept 11 and 0:0:47 to say "they hate freedom"?

LOL, our President is just playing the crowd man. Thats also why there is not an effort to impeach. People are starting to after the fact go, "hey wait a minute this Iraq thing is messed up - even though I got that ribbon for my Tahoe things arent improving - WTF?" but yet a majority still overall support the President even when they are changing their minds on his handling of Iraq.

There are various efforts to impeach him, even some brought to the House by congresspeople. But none very serious.

It seems that in general its far worse of an offense to the American people to lie about getting a hummer from an intern, THAT will get you impeached, than it is to start an unjustified clusterfuck of a war where thousands upon thousands of people die (yes the US troops number is a few thousand now, but the Iraqi civilian number is over 20,000 at present).

[And dont get me wrong, I am not condoning what that asshat Clinton did, complete moron and because of his little indiscretion Bush is the President, clearly without a wave of anti-Dem sentiment ushered in by his blow jobs Gore would have beaten Bush the first time around and likely this Iraq mess never would have happened - rather I am just comparing the lies of the two Presidents and the scale/scope of their consequences.]

RE: A "timeline" for Iraq?

One more thing

I think this is spot on I am not sure a Balkan's style civil war is avoidable in Iraq at this point. At the same time, that whole "Pottery Barn Rule" is in full effect here. We broke it, we have a responsibility to pay for it.

I think a "self sustainable government" in Iraq won't be what Richard Perl fantasizes about in some orgasmic contagious democracy way, but it is possible, even if it means accepting a rather authoritarian Shia rule.

I dont think we will ever achieve a circle jerk loya jurga based "democracy" but I simply meant a "self sustaining government" whatever it looks like. Sure the more democratic and more secular the better, but stability becomes more important than non realistic ideals. It likely will be a religiously dominated Shia government, not a "beacon" of democracy, but at least a government and the US can then leave (and will that government be better off than before we went in, hmmmm, lets see, depends on whether you are a Shia or not I suppose).

RE: A "timeline" for Iraq?

I listened to snippets of last night's speech and he consistently links the Iraq conflict to 9/11 and the 'war on terror'. How is that acceptable? Sure there is a link NOW after we went in and destabilized the country. NOW it is a terroist breeding/training ground - it was not before we went in. His Al Qaeda quotes referring to Iraq as the battleground came after we invaded Iraq - not before; it is the result of how badly we fucked up over there that allowed this to become a battleground for terrorists. For him to use that in his speech is over the top dishonest.

RE: A "timeline" for Iraq?

Absolutely true Shmooze. This administration continues to lie and mislead and thats just unacceptable. If ever there was a time we needed to just tell the truth and deal with it, its now, yet Bush cant seem to do that. (Linking Iraq and 9/11 is total bullshit, even if its just innuendo, and linking Iraq and al Quaeda BEFORE the invasion is also bullshit - the only Iraq terrorist ties ever proven to exist were Abu Nidal et all in the early 90s and BEFORE THEN, not in the 2000's and such - that is why what the President says on these matter simply further denigrates the position of the US around the world and further exacerbates the Iraq matter.)

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