Screaming Penguin - Source Does Matter

http://www.nytimes.com/library/tech/99/11/biztech/articles/10soft.html">This story in the NYTimes today reports that the remedial phase of the Microsoft trial might represent a worst case scenario to Bill&Co.

"The state and federal officials prosecuting the Microsoft antitrust case now say that their goal in any settlement, or court-imposed remedy, will be to break the company's monopoly in personal computer operating systems, or limit its ability to wield such monopoly power." (JOEL BRINKLEY, NYTimes)

Ideas are flying, but where will it lead? My take: Break them up into three companies. You can release the OS source, but that would not make that much of a difference in the marketplace. Let\'s look at it from a MS historical perspective. Following one of the thoughts of the article, we force MS to release the source to public domain or licenses it to a few companys. BAM you have competion for Win32 OSes. We set up a new joint venture to handle compatibility issues accross the "flavors" of Win32. What happens now? In 4 years, Microsoft\'s market share will be exactly the same. Through the ongoing strategy of "embrace and extend" MS will take the Windows "standard" and extend it with new APIs, not for the sake of Innovation, but to make sure that Office 2002 won\'t run on any of the competing flavors of Win32. Let us not forget that Microsoft\'s monopoly is BOTH in OS, and standard productivity apps. More on that to follow.Secondly, we could develop much more strict watchdog provisions to make sure Microsoft never kills another Netscape. I have very little faith in this tactic, however. Microsoft\'s bundling of Office and Windows is what put all but the last nail into WordPerfect\'s and Lotus\' coffins. Does anyone really think that the DoJ has (a) the ability to act with due speed to intercept ALL of Microsoft\'s shady business deals, or (b) if given the power could act with due restraint in the proper istances. I\'m a flaming liberal, but I don\'t want to give the government that much carte blance into the tech sectors business. The real terror is that MS will use its Office/Windows duopoly to crush the next company that comes out with "the killer ap", the way they nuked Netscape. The only real way to do that is to break up Apps and OS. The OS division will have far less inclination to railroad the next killer ap down everyones throat, the apps division would not be able to steal market and mindshare by simply forcing everyone to have a product indelibly installed on their computer. Thirdly, Microsoft\'s network and content business should become a separate entity. While MS has shown nothing but ineptitude so far in this arena, the deep pockets that either the applications or OS divisions could afford it will give them an artifical success. I have been saying for years that the next great battle for the net will be between AOL and Disney over the great part of mainstream content. If we allow Microsoft to push content from MSN, (N)otmail, MSNBC, Expedia, etc unfettered into their applications as they move to a subscription computing model, they will have every content prodiver in the country over a barrel. "Work with us or go home" will be the message to Reuters, News Corp, Bloomberg.Strange days are coming. Lets hope we can pull out of this deathtrap.